The short answer:

No. But I am.

The long answer:

I’m not great at a lot of card games, but there is one that I am unnaturally good at. Some people say that it’s just luck, but they obviously don’t understand the subtle skill involved in Guess The Card. If you’ve never played it before, I won’t go into the rules here, but suffice it to say that some people would naively expect that the chance of winning is one out of fifty-two. But then how do they explain that I’ve won twice after playing only twenty times? Obviously I’m a Guess The Card grandmaster.

But that’s skill and not luck. I don’t consider myself to be a lucky person. For instance, I’ve never won the lottery. Then again, I don’t play; after all, they say the lottery is just a tax on people who are bad at math, and I try to avoid taxes as much possible. (I’ve heard that Liechtenstein is a tax haven.) Still, if I were really lucky, then I’d be the type to play and win, not the type to scoff at all the people who play and lose.

Some people say that there’s no such thing as being lucky. Their argument is that ultimately everything comes down to mathematical probability, so in the long run, you’ll have your fair share of both good luck and bad luck. This may be true, but that doesn’t mean you can’t be lucky. After all, death, like taxes, is unavoidable, and since luck is inherently random, some people must have more than their share of good luck before they die. But that’s just the definition of being lucky. (Alas, this is not much consolation to the dead guy.)

But even though I believe in luck, I like to keep it at a safe distance. While some people embrace luck, I do not, first because I’m not a huge fan of hugging in general, and second because luck is a pretty terrible friend. Sure, it might be willing to lend you some cash, but it is not something you can depend on, and it has no qualms about cavorting with your enemies. I’d like my friends to be a little more reliable and loyal than that. Also it can’t drive you to the airport.

Therefore I try to avoid thinking of myself as a lucky person, but in reality I probably cannot deny that I am pretty lucky. I made money the last time I went to a casino (two dollars), Lucky Charms were on sale this week, and all things considered, my life is pretty good: I’m healthy, well-off, educated, and happy enough. Although some of these things I’d like to attribute to my wit and savvy, I’m afraid that chance must have played a role as well.

Sometimes it can be difficult to reconcile what is due to luck and what is due to skill. In college I took a music composition class, and sometimes it seemed like finding the right combination of notes was just a matter of serendipity. Likewise, sometimes I feel that writing something clever is just a matter of having the right words randomly pass through your brain at the right time. If you randomly hit keys on a keyboard, eventually something good has to come out. But then I start thinking to myself, is it possible that I’m not good at anything, I’m just lucky?

But of course this is ridiculous. Perhaps instead of keys on a keyboard, a piñata would be a more accurate analogy. If you randomly hit a piñata, eventually something good has to come out. You may not know when, how, or how much, but it will definitely come. And while there is some luck involved, the harder you strike, the greater your expected reward. Most things in life are a combination of luck and skill, and being successful is often a matter of recognizing and exploiting this dynamic as much as possible.

So when I say that I don’t feel lucky but I really am, I mean that the Fates do not give me any special treatment; I only try my best to maximize my chance of success. Then all it takes to be lucky is to know to quit while you’re ahead. (That’s why I can never play Guess The Card again.)

Cheers,
-qm